EVENING UPDATE - JANUARY 19, 2008

Mitt Romney has been declared the winner in the GOP Nevada caucuses, running against, essentially, no real opposition.  He has just made a victory speech.  Ah, just a little taste of a totalitarian state - where somebody runs against nobody, wins, and declares a famous victory.  That's unfair to Romney, but he really has to win a big test to stay serious.  He should also have some work done to become less pretty.  He might also leave a hair out of place.  Just one for now.

Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner in the Nevada caucuses.  By some statistical quirk, she might not get most of the delegates.  That's to be seen.  I believe that Obama, who had powerful union support in Nevada, made two serious mistakes.  First, he depended too much on the Hispanic vote, assuming Hispanics were another minority who could feel comfortable with him.  Historically, though, there's been some friction between blacks and Hispanics.  In the privacy of the voting booth, that friction could have consequences.  Second, Obama let the race issue get out of hand.  As I've written here earlier, the race card always favors the white candidate in a national campaign.  It's a matter of numbers.  Obama has admirably run his political races as a candidate who transcends race.  But allowing some of his supporters to paint Hillary Clinton as insensitive to black concerns was a tactical blunder, and a deviation from his past winning strategies.

It's just after 8 p.m. EST.  It's too early to know the outcome in South Carolina.  A Huckabee win would keep him going, but wouldn't prove all that much.  Huckabee must demonstrate that he can win outside the South.  A McCain win would be more important, accelerating his newly found momentum, and showing that he can win in a state he lost to George W. Bush in 2000. 

Remember, Super Tuesday is two weeks from this coming Tuesday.  This is why American politics is so exciting. 

Remember, also, that there are people in other countries, some residing in exclusive caves, who have their own ideas about who they want as president of the United States, and will act accordingly in the coming months.

I may have more later tonight, if there's anything to say.

Posted on January 19, 2008.